Don't know if you've been to http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/ but this guy has figured out a way to empirically correct the polling based on a different definition of likely voters. He was frighteningly accurate during the primaries.
I'm thinking you could be right; current polling practices increase the likelihood of finding conservative McCain supporters, but aren't as good at tracking down younger voters who use cell phones and VOIP and more likely support Obama. When I saw that Obama was in a dead heat with McCain after picking Biden, I took that to mean he'd jumped at least 10 points over McCain.
I'll take that bet and you're gonna be sorry you made it when the Republicans roll out their October surprise. I'm thinking...Bin Laden capture and four years of John McSame. Actually as divided, disorganized, crooked and flaky as the Democratic party is they might not even have to do that.
3 comments:
I am far too superstitious to make a bet like that... but if it happens, I'll owe you a beer no matter what. (Maybe I can send one in the mail?) :)
In fact, I may just buy a round for the whole damn nation, as I breathe a sigh of relief.
Don't know if you've been to http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/ but this guy has figured out a way to empirically correct the polling based on a different definition of likely voters. He was frighteningly accurate during the primaries.
I'm thinking you could be right; current polling practices increase the likelihood of finding conservative McCain supporters, but aren't as good at tracking down younger voters who use cell phones and VOIP and more likely support Obama. When I saw that Obama was in a dead heat with McCain after picking Biden, I took that to mean he'd jumped at least 10 points over McCain.
I'll take that bet and you're gonna be sorry you made it when the Republicans roll out their October surprise. I'm thinking...Bin Laden capture and four years of John McSame. Actually as divided, disorganized, crooked and flaky as the Democratic party is they might not even have to do that.
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