Do you hear that? That sound of breaking glass is human’s place as the smartest creature on the planet being shattered. IBM has just announced that the Department of Energy has placed an order for a computer to be installed in 2012 that will process 20 petaflops a second. This is pretty remarkable because it has been less than a year since we built the first computer that can do 1 petaflop a second.
Estimates of the computation power of the average human brain ranges from 10 petaflops to 1000 petaflops. So Sequoia, the name of the new computer, will be the first machine ever built that has the possibility of equaling a human brain in terms of raw computational power. Obviously the human mind is a complex machine that very well may be far more than raw computational power; however, the truth is that we don’t really know if there is more to it than raw power. But we are about to find out. Even if the computational power of the human brain is more in the 1000 petaflop range, we should be able to reach it in five years or so.
In addition, if the laws of diminishing cost continue to hold, you should be able to buy a computer with the same computational power for about $1,000 in less than 10 years. At that point, we should be only a few years away from building a computer that will have the computational power of every human mind on the planet combined.
What does all of this mean? I could get all Ray Kurzweil on you and start talking about the singularity (although Google and NASA believe in the singularity enough that they just announced that they are partnering on a research facility dedicated to it) but I think at the least, we are about to find out if consciousness is truly “unique”.
So, do you want the Red Pill or the Blue Pill? You may have to decide sooner than you think.
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9 comments:
Ok call me a freak but I don't think building a computer as smart as a human is a good idea. No good can come out of this. I think it will be the downfall to our species.
*adjusts tinfoil hat*
There are plenty of science fiction stories to back up your fear; however, having computers that are much smarter than humans does not have to be a bad thing.
There is an argument to be made that having super-intelligent machines could be the salvation of the human race.
The role of science fiction is not to predict the future; but rather, to warn us of possible futures.
Yes, having another intelligent is going to be a situation that needs to be carefully considered; but, a knee-jerk luddite fear is not going to do much good.
They are coming and when the intelligent computers start to be able to design their own "children" we are going to see evolution work in ways never before seen on the planet.
I should also add that it is entirely possible that an artificial intelligence already exists. If you take the very mysterious grid of computers that Google has built or even the collected CPU capability of the SETI at Home project, it is possible that an artificial intelligence has arisen "naturally" and we just are not aware of its existence.
I have had thoughts in the moments right before you fall asleep, wherein I have considered the Storm Trojan virus, which has infected at miniumum 50 million computers and has the capability of taking over all of them at the flip of a switch, was originally created by an AI as a "back-up" plan of sorts.
Oh wow, I never knew that about the Trojan Virus. I know it's a knee jerk reaction but I can't help it. I think some things in life just shouldn't be messed with. I think having technology is a big help to us as a species but again, my fear is that too much is going to be the end of it. Good blog post by the way. :)
I didn't mean that the Storm trojan was made by an AI, I just suggested that it could have been. However the probabillity of that is very very very small. I probably have a better chance of running into Papa Smurf in my backyard than the Storm being created by an AI.
"They are coming and when the intelligent computers start to be able to design their own "children" we are going to see evolution work in ways never before seen on the planet."
CYLONS!!!
Seriously though, I think it's exciting! What if a computer that has more brainpower than a human brain can help us unlock more of our own brainpower??? (that other 90% that we don't use)
OOOOOOHHH...I just started watching "Heroes" and season one, ep three or four, has references to "singularity" neener neener neener neener
3 laws
I hope we incorporate the 3 laws. I just read an article yesterday about how a group of scientists are reverse engineering the brain (funded by DARPA). The environment they are using for the "brain" to move around in is the Unreal Tournament engine. Unreal Tournament is a first-person shooter war game. I don't think they are having the "brain" go around shooting virtual people, but, did it not occur to anyone that training a computer intelligence to move around in the same environment that is used to simulate warfare is not the best PR. Hell, they could have used the Second Life engine or The Sims, but no, they used Unreal Tournament.
Sheesh.
Maybe we really should all become Luddites.
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