A couple of days ago I mentioned in passing the possibility that we are approaching the singularity. It was one of those throw-away words that I didn’t give much thought and as consequence I have heard others mention it numerous times since I wrote that post.
For those of you not up on your futurism and/or science fiction (some would claim they are the one and the same) let me give you a little primer. The singularity is a theoretical point in the future wherein technology advances to such a degree that we experience an unprecedented burst of innovation and advancement. The theory is that once we have machines that achieve near-human intelligence, those same machines will be able to design even more intelligent machines, which design even more intelligent machines, and … well you get the idea. While the rise of intelligent machines is the first domino, intelligent machines alone don’t bring about the singularity. E.O. Wilson in his wonderful book Consilience argues that Science is advancing to the point where we are approaching a unity of knowledge.
This isn’t some crazy notion concocted by a bunch of sci-fi nerds, but is a theory supported by some of the brightest minds in the world. Carl Sagan believed that we would be approaching the singularity by 2030. Ray Kurzweil has basically devoted his life to the idea and made it his goal to live long enough to witness such. Even business people like Jack Welch and Bill Gates are saying it is inevitable. Google and NASA have partnered to create a think-tank devoted entirely to the subject.
So what does the singularity mean for you and me? Nobody knows and that is the whole point. We are talking about such a rapid change in both technology and society that predictions would be impossible. We are talking about a change so great that a good analogy would be like taking a person from the year 1000 and dropping them in the middle of 2009, except we would have change that drastic every 10 to 20 years. Our dreams of flying cars and Rosie the Robot may seem quaint within our lifetime. Kurzweil wrote in 2001: “The Singularity is technological change so rapid and so profound that it represents a rupture in the fabric of human history. Some would say that we cannot comprehend the Singularity, at least with our current level of understanding, and that it is impossible, therefore, to look past its "event horizon" and make sense of what lies beyond.”
Do I have anything interesting to say on this subject? No, not really. For those worried about being able to adapt I don’t really have any advice except to read more science fiction. Those sci-fi nerds may just be your best bet for being able to adapt to whatever new paradigm is over the horizon.
3 comments:
Funny…I just read an article on Kurzweil in the most-recent issue of "Rolling Stone." I like his synthesizers a lot. The quadruple-handful of pills he takes daily to allow him to survive until The Singularity strikes me as bizarre, but, okay. Him planning to use futuristic nanotechnology to scrounge for his dad's DNA around the gravesite and use it to bring him back to life was downright spooky.
He's either so brilliant only a handful of people can even conceive it…or he's totally, 100% fuckin' looney-tunes.
I think you are right that he is either a so smart that none of us mere mortals can comprehend him or totally looney.
NASA and Google think it is the first. Rumors are saying that Google has put up over 50 million dollars for the founding of his Singularity University and NASA is apointing tons of full time staff to the institute.
If you get a chance, read his book "Age of the Spirtual Machines" that he wrote in 1999. He is eerily correct in his timeline.
Oh yeah, anyone that has to hire a full time person just to manage their pills is crazy. Crazy like a fox maybe, but crazy nonetheless.
*whispers a silent thank you to Robert A. Heinlein*
personally, I can't WAIT to see what happens!
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